Wednesday, January 07, 2009

2009 Going to Be Pretty Interesting in Tampa

2008 was moving along ok until the Financial Markets really tanked. Admittedly there were plenty of local indicators that were not good.

Florida is extremely dependent on tourism and construction/real estate. As gas prices kept going up and home values down, all related industries looked pretty bad.

The usual promise of a Holiday Season boost seemed to be forgotten as the Presidential elections seemed to dominate everyone's thoughts and then all of a sudden there was Thanksgiving.

Tampa has the next promise of Superbowl and Gasparilla providing a financial boost to the area. And we do not want to forget our incredible weather and the winter visitors that they bring. But they too are looking weak for the year.

Hotel rooms are still plentiful for Superbowl. We hear several large hotels are waiting until that hopeful weekend before shuttering there doors. More retail closings will happen soon as well. Quite a few parties have been cancelled and once optimistic caterers and restaurants are starting to become pessimistic.

The new History Museum will open on Riverwalk near Channelside in Mid January with a lot of hoopla. Along with that will be Lights on Tampa, a free expression of outdoor art.

The Obama administration definitely will start their term with a full basket of problems. Many of these are severely impacting Tampa.

We want to give you several things to watch for:
1. More money and encouragement will be made to banks for more lending. The credit markets have become too restrictive. Banks will be looking more to the quality of the borrower rather than the quality of the underlying asset.
2. The Federal Government will probably be providing funds to some States and Local governments in order to short cut layoffs due to taxes not being paid and declining real estate values. California has indicated that they may soon be issuing IOU's rather than actually paying some of their larger bills.
3. Efforts will be made to make government projects happen FAST ! Construction costs have declined due to the recession. This will allow for lower cost projects if the money is available. In Tampa, projects like part of Riverwalk, Tampa Heights, and more may begin construction pretty promptly.
4. Tampa will be a loser in the Mass Transit side. Thanks to the lack of vision of the County Commission, there is not yet a solid plan for a light rail system that could be implemented right away. Watch for Federal money to be pumped into Orlando and other markets for that. Mayor Iorio will be pushing for the start of a light rail plan to be on the ballot in 2010. Probably too late for the most immediate of Federal stimulus funds.

The question for the new administration will be how fast they can actually act in getting things going. Only time will tell what that will mean for Tampa.

How are you surviving ? Are you optimistic about 2009 ?

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